India’s strategic repositioning in global supply chains: Impact of China + 1, nearshoring, and green trade policies on India’s export competitiveness by 2030

Global supply chains are undergoing a profound restructuring driven by geopolitical tensions, technological decoupling, sustainability regulations, and the emerging “China + 1” diversification strategy adopted by multinational corporations. India has positioned itself as a key alternative manufacturing and services hub in this new global configuration, supported by initiatives such as Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, logistics reforms, FDI liberalisation, and accelerated infrastructure development. Concurrently, green trade policies—including the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), ESG reporting norms, and global climate commitments—are reshaping how countries compete in global value chains (GVCs). This paper examines how India is strategically repositioning itself within global supply chains and evaluates the likely impact of China + 1 strategies, nearshoring/friendshoring, and green trade norms on India’s export competitiveness by 2030. Using secondary data from UNCTAD, WTO, OECD TiVA, DGFT, RBI, and international investment reports, the study analyses manufacturing shifts in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, automotive (EVs), semiconductors, textiles, and green technologies. It also integrates insights from contemporary literature on supply chain resilience, strategic autonomy, and sustainable trade. The analysis suggests that India has strong potential to absorb supply chain realignments due to its demographic advantages, policy reforms, and market scale; however, challenges remain in logistics efficiency, compliance with green standards, and capability gaps in high-tech manufacturing. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at enhancing India’s resilience and competitiveness in the global supply chain landscape towards 2030.