Carbon emissions and climate change impacts on food production in China and beyond

Climate change is a defining challenge for humanity, and agriculture sits at its center as both a contributor to and a victim of this crisis. This dissertation investigates agricultural resilience through two key frameworks: the "Dual Dilemma" and the "Adaptation Paradox". The research highlights that agriculture must navigate internal trade-offs between economic, environmental, and health goals while resisting external climate pressures. Using data from China and the global scale, the study reveals that while high-income regions use intensive management to buffer short-term climate shocks, this often erodes long-term crop resilience—a phenomenon termed the "Adaptation Paradox". Key findings show that climate change has already reduced the productivity of essential crops like wheat and rice. Furthermore, temporary emission drops, such as those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, are likely to rebound without structural green transformation. The study concludes that future food security depends on more than just immediate technological fixes. It requires a synergistic approach that balances multiple competing objectives within the agricultural system while aligning short-term responses with long-term climate adaptation strategies.