Hydrological Variability and Climate Change Impacts in the Kura River Basin: Trends, Extremes, and Management Implications

This study was conducted to assess the impacts of hydrological variability and climate change on river discharge within the Kura River basin. The analysis indicates that both annual and seasonal flow regimes have undergone substantial alterations over recent decades, driven by rising air temperatures, uneven spatial – temporal distribution of precipitation, and reductions in snowpack. These changes have intensified the frequency and magnitude of hydrometeorological extremes—particularly floods and droughts — thereby increasing the complexity of forecasting and water-resource planning across the basin. The methodological framework integrates the Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope estimator, and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series modelling to detect long-term tendencies and quantify variability in streamflow dynamics. The combined application of these statistical tools enables a robust evaluation of monotonic trends, directional changes, and predictive behavior of discharge under changing climatic conditions. The findings highlight that adaptive water management, enhanced regional monitoring, and ecosystem-based approaches represent essential strategies for improving the sustainability and resilience of water-resource governance in the Kura River basin. Strengthening these measures will contribute to evidence-based decision-making and more effective responses to the growing challenges associated with climate-induced hydrological shifts.