Risk-based performance of public procurement as a determinant of financial resilience

ntroduction. Under the current functional conditions of Ukraine's budgetary system, the transformation of public expenditure architecture has become of critical importance. The deepening macroeconomic turbulence in 2024–2026 necessitates the implementation of the financial resilience concept, defined as the procurement contour's capacity for proactive adaptation and the preservation of fiscal stability. Traditional performance criteria, focused on the nominal saving of appropriations, require revision toward the integration of risk-based parameters. Problem Statement. Exogenous shocks in recent years have determined the emergence of significant cash gaps and the destruction of value-added chains in the public sector. The phenomenon of “virtual savings” caused by price dumping levels out real social utility (VfM) and generates hidden fiscal losses. The absence of a verified methodology for the convergence of compliance indicators with performance metrics hinders the formation of an anti-fragile mechanism for public capital management. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the theoretical and methodological foundations for assessing the performance of public procurement and to develop practical tools for measuring state financial resilience based on the risk-oriented determination of integrated indicators. Methods. The research is based on a synthesis of neo-institutional analysis and financial risk theory. Methods of econometric modeling were applied to calculate the author's Resilient Procurement Index (RPI), alongside statistical benchmarking of market price volatility and scenario modeling of the impact of inflationary deflators. Empirical verification was conducted through a retrospective analysis of transaction arrays from the Electronic Procurement System (EPS) and the results of surveying subjects of the procurement process. Results. It is proved that the performance of public procurement is a multiplicative function of institutional stability and compliance consistency. A mathematical model of the RPI Index has been developed, providing exponential damping of expected savings by the magnitude of cumulative risk. Points of “fiscal destruction” caused by time lags and subjective defaults of counterparties have been identified. The testing of the Digital Resilience Index (IDRZ) confirmed the possibility of reducing the probability of contract obligation degradation by 18% through increasing the digital maturity of budget fund managers. Conclusions. The implementation of a risk-based approach to performance assessment is an alternative-free condition for stabilizing the expenditure part of the budget under conditions of macroeconomic entropy. It is established that the transition to algorithmic compliance and the use of non-price criteria allows for neutralizing institutional inertia and ensuring the strategic stability of public services. The proposed methodology serves as a basis for expanding the state's fiscal space and minimizing lost benefits at all stages of the public contract life cycle.