IDP Return and Social Cohesion: Evidence from Camp Closures in Iraq

After the resolution of a civil conflict, how does the return of the internally displaced population (IDPs) impact social cohesion? Little attention has been paid to the consequences of IDP return, despite extensive research on the causes and effects of displacement. I investigate this question in Iraq after the the Islamic State. Camp closures by the federal government starting in 2019 forced hundreds of thousands of internal migrants to return. The exogenous timing of the closures provides a unique setting to estimate a plausibly causal effect of return. Leveraging village-level displacement data, community assessments, respondent-level surveys, and qualitative fieldwork, I find that the closure-induced returns frayed social cohesion. My theory provides a critical mechanism underpinning this relationship: return creates communal tensions by inducing fear and suspicion. These findings hold significant policy implications, as the approach of post-conflict governments to address internal migration profoundly influences the social legacy of civil conflicts.