The Race After the Race: How Candidates of Color Respond to Electoral Defeat

Are Afrodescendant candidates more likely than white candidates to retire following electoral defeat? Numerous studies examine the emergence and electoral success of racial minority candidates, but we know remarkably little about how they respond to electoral defeat. There is reason to suspect that defeated racial minority candidates are less likely than defeated white candidates to run again because they are treated differently by political elites and members of the public. Using data from Brazilian elections and a regression discontinuity design, however, we present compelling evidence that Afro-Brazilian candidates who barely lose are just as likely as defeated white candidates to compete in subsequent elections. These findings challenge assumptions about racial disparities in political resilience and the prospects for closing Brazil’s racial representation gaps.