NUCLEAR POWER IN LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES: A STRATEGIC PRIMER – AN EXPLORATION OF VIABILITY WINDOWS FOR SMALL MEDIUM REACTORS (SMRS) THROUGH NARRATIVE, SIMPLE ECONOMIC, AND ROBUST DECISION-MAKING (RDM) ANALYSIS.

This report examines the prospective role of nuclear and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) within the complex energy transitions of Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), offering a replicable energy planning framework and informing potential UK Government support. It underscores that while variable renewable energy (VRE) sources are foundational for decarbonisation, their high penetration can introduce significant system-level costs, often uncaptured by simplistic Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) metrics, necessitating complementary firm, dispatchable capacity. Modelling indicates that SMRs could integrate meaningfully into fossil-fuel heavy systems (with limited hydro and geothermal as so-called “firm” renewable capacity) from approximately 2037–2045. This integration would be driven by carbon constraints and reliability needs, potentially contributing over 20% of generation by 2055. Conversely, in hydropower- dominated systems (that provide “firm” renewable capacity), SMRs are projected to play a more limited role, typically less than 2% of generation, as existing hydro and increasingly cost-effective battery storage largely meet demand. The viability of SMRs is contingent upon specific “triggers”, notably their capital costs falling below approximately $6,000–7,500 MUSD/GWe, alongside carbon prices exceeding $73–78 USD/ton, respectively. (At lower carbon prices, fossil-fuel alternatives provide the required “firm” capacity). Note that these numbers will change over time (as the energy system is dynamic) and will require updating annually. Construction delays significantly escalate total system costs, primarily by necessitating reliance on more expensive, often fossil-fuel-based, backup generation and incurring higher capital costs over time.