Temperature and Arrests in Prohibition-era South Carolina

The positive correlation between high temperatures and crime is well established. I consider how random, within-month daily high temperature and precipitation affects arrests rather than incidents. I analyze jail records of a Prohibition Era southern city with mean summer daily high temperatures of 85�F without modern air conditioning, so outdoor temperatures are salient. I find that each 1�F increase in daily high temperatures leads to a 0.5% to 1.9% increase in all-offense arrests, with the largest effect on violence. I also find that severe droughts have no meaningful effect on violent or public order offenses but lead to a 17.2% increase in the daily number of arrests for fraud, forgery, and related offenses. The results are consistent with a hypothesis that more arrests occur on hot days because more crimes are committed on hot days. The results are also consistent with studies that identify a connection between droughts and crime in modern developing countries. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.