BRI-DRIVEN TRANSFORMATION IN THE NEAR AND MIDDLE EAST: INFRASTRUCTURE, SECURITY, AND STRATEGIC DEPENDENCIES IN CHINA-MIDDLE EAST RELATIONS

This article examines how China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reshapes political and economic relations in the Near and Middle East by generating multidimensional strategic dependencies. Rather than producing unilateral dominance, the BRI creates varying degrees of economic, technological, and diplomatic dependence shaped by domestic priorities and access to alternative partners. Through a comparative analysis of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran, the study demonstrates that moderate levels of dependence enable selective cooperation and the preservation of strategic autonomy, while higher levels of dependence encourage closer alignment with China. The findings challenge simplistic “debt trap” narratives by highlighting the role of state agency in mediating BRI outcomes. Overall, the article argues that the BRI contributes to a conditional and differentiated regional order in which influence is exercised through geoeconomic mechanisms rather than direct security control.