Global trends of cardiovascular disease burden attributable to high body mass index from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2035

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality and disability globally, with high body mass index (HBMI) playing a pivotal role in its worldwide burden. Gaining a clear understanding and forecasting the effect of HBMI on CVD is crucial for developing effective health policies and interventions. Methods: We used data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study to analyze the CVD burden attributable to HBMI. An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was conducted to investigate trends in CVD-related mortality attributable to HBMI, whereas the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model projected the number of deaths and mortality up to 2035. Results: The study revealed a significant increase in CVD deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to HBMI globally, despite slightly decreased age-standardized rates (ASR) for HBMI-related CVD. The ASR of deaths and DALYs decreased from 1990 to 2021 in the high and high-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions while increasing in the lower SDI regions. A pinpoint analysis revealed the most significant decline in HBMI-related CVD mortality from 2003 to 2010. The BAPC model projected an increase in global HBMI-related CVD deaths to 2,369,451 by 2035. The ASR of deaths is projected to increase to 37.53 per 100,000, with an increase for females and a decrease for males. Conclusion: This study emphasizes global trends in HBMI-related CVD burden and the importance of targeting HBMI as a modifiable risk factor. It provides crucial information for public health strategies aimed at reducing CVD mortality. Further research is warranted, especially with an aging global population.