Using CO2 emission stability to assess energy system resilience during COVID-19

The COVID‑19 pandemic abruptly disrupted economic activity and daily life, reshaping global fossil‑fuel CO 2 emissions. We use CO 2 emission stability to characterize how national energy systems absorbed and recovered from this common shock, providing an empirical view of energy system resilience. We compile annual fossil‑fuel CO 2 emissions and energy‑system indicators for 64 economies over 2015–2019 and 2019–2023. Emission stability is defined as the absolute difference between pre‑ and post‑COVID compound annual growth factors. Spatial clustering is assessed with Getis–Ord Gi* statistics. An entropy‑based resilience index is built from indicators of fuel mix, low‑carbon electricity, energy diversity, import dependence, and per‑capita energy use and income. From 2015–2019 to 2019–2023, Europe consolidates its role as a CO 2 emission cold‑spot region, while parts of Latin America and the Caribbean emerge as new hot spots. High‑income economies generally maintain declining or stable emissions and higher resilience scores, with limited rebound. Upper‑middle‑income countries, especially in East Asia and the Pacific, remain the main contributors to emission growth, driven mainly by coal. In most countries, emission stability and resilience fall into the same or adjacent classes. Using CO 2 emission stability as a proxy offers a tractable way to compare energy system resilience under a shared global shock. Yet stability can also reflect non‑resilience factors such as lockdowns, macroeconomic contractions, fuel price shocks, or hydrological variability. Our results therefore characterize structural, annual‑scale resilience and highlight differentiated policy needs across income groups.