Development of hydrogen energy and estimation of policy subsidy intensity: a benchmarking analysis based on wind and solar energy development

As the main driving forces of renewable energy, wind and photovoltaic power have important reference value for the emerging hydrogen energy industry in aspects such as policy guidance, technological innovation, and market cultivation. As a zero-carbon energy carrier, hydrogen energy can not only alleviate the intermittency of wind and solar power generation and enhance grid stability, but can also contribute to deep decarbonization across multiple sectors. At present, China’s hydrogen energy industry faces many challenges, including a low degree of localization, high costs, and incomplete standards. This article reviews key policies supporting the development of the wind and solar energy industries and, through benchmarking analysis, systematically evaluates the directions that the hydrogen energy industry can learn from. Furthermore, drawing on the experience of the wind and solar industries in promoting localization driven by policy subsidies during their early stages, a model for estimating the intensity of hydrogen energy policy subsidies is constructed to analyze subsidy requirements under different learning rates. It is found that a benchmark learning rate of 18% achieves an optimal balance. Based on the evaluation and analysis, several targeted suggestions are proposed to help the hydrogen energy industry overcome bottlenecks and achieve high-quality, large-scale development: strengthening innovation and intellectual property layout in key technologies such as electrolyzers and hydrogen storage materials; improving industry chain standards including the definition and certification of green hydrogen; deepening international cooperation with technologically leading countries; and promoting demonstration projects such as green hydrogen production and hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks.