Nightlights and electricity access: measuring the effectiveness of electrification policies in Nigeria using satellite images

Introduction Nigeria is one of Africa’s largest economies but has the world’s largest population without electricity access. Despite multiple national energy policies since 2000, access has expanded slowly and unevenly. While policy implementation challenges are well documented, few studies provide empirical evidence of their spatial and temporal impacts. Methods This study evaluates the spatial and temporal impacts of energy policy interventions in Nigeria using satellite-based nighttime luminosity and population data from 2000 to 2021. These data are used to generate high-resolution electricity access rates (EARs), aggregated to Nigeria’s 774 Local Government Areas (LGAs), 36 states and FCT, and 11 electricity distribution utility service territories. Results The results reveal regional disparities. By 2021, only 32 LGAs in Northern Nigeria had EARs above 90%, compared to 110 in the South. Urban areas gained access at twice the rate of rural areas. Panel regression analysis of four key policies, EPSRA (2005), EG/IEDN (2012), Mini-grid Regulation (2016), and WBWS (2019), shows that none produced statistically significant national-level improvements, though localized successes occurred. Discussion These findings show that even sound policies need broader reforms and strong institutions to succeed. They emphasize the importance of flexible, regionally tailored approaches. As Nigeria adopts decentralized electricity governance under the 2023 Electricity Act, future reforms should be driven by granular data and evidence to ensure more even and reliable access nationwide.