Optimizing shoreline suitability models framework: integrating advanced GIS methodologies at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

Coastal regions face growing vulnerability to climate change, underscoring the need for advanced tools to support mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study presents a comprehensive approach to developing a GIS-based shoreline suitability model for APG, Maryland, using the Suitability Modeler in ArcGISPro 3.1.0. Thirteen physical and ecological variables were used to classify shoreline segments as suitable for living shorelines (LS), hybrid solutions (HS), or not suitable for living shorelines (NLS). A rigorous methodology included variable selection based on on-site assessments and prior research, a comparative analysis of weighted and unweighted outputs, and a two-way validation process using a confusion matrix and the Living Shoreline Feasibility Model (LSFM). While variable weighting did not significantly improve accuracy metrics, it enhanced alignment with LSFM and improved classification differentiation. By demonstrating the benefits of variable weighting and establishing a robust validation protocol, this study offers valuable insights for data-driven coastal resilience planning and decision-making.