Current and future spatial dynamics of the edaphoclimatic distribution of Ceiba pentandra in the geographical department of Amazonas, Peru

Ceiba pentandra is a forest species of high commercial value in Peru due to the characteristics of its wood. Determining the current and future potential distribution areas of C. pentandra provides a scientific basis for the sustainability of the species. In this study, we used spatial modeling to determine the dynamics of the current and future potential distribution of C. pentandra with the MIROC6 model in two SSPs (245 and 585), using a record of 335 data points on the presence of the species and 12 edaphoclimatic variables, which were integrated into the RandomForest algorithm. The results showed that the prediction is statistically consistent (AUC-ROC = 0.94), based on which the model predicted that C. pentandra is mainly distributed in the northern part of the Amazonas department, specifically in the province of Condorcanqui. In the future, in both SSPs (245 and 585), the geographical distribution area will remain the same, but the areas will decrease compared to those currently predicted. The findings of this research will help the competent authorities to map the optimal areas for reintroducing the species or establishing C. pentandra forest plantations.