Serum magnesium predictive value in hepatocellular carcinoma patients on first-line immunotherapy: a retrospective study

Background Serum magnesium plays a critical role in modulating immune responses and enhancing anti-tumor immunity in cancer patients. However, its predictive significance in relation to progression-free survival (PFS) and disease control rate (DCR) among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing first-line immunotherapy remains uninvestigated. Methods This retrospective study analyzed HCC patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in a derivation cohort and an independent validation cohort. Patients were enrolled based on predefined inclusion criteria. The primary endpoint was to assess the association between baseline serum magnesium levels prior to immunotherapy initiation and the disease control rate. The optimal cut-off value of serum magnesium for predicting disease control was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. PFS was evaluated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results A total of 110 hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with ICIs were enrolled in the derivation cohort. The DCR was 78.18%. ROC analysis identified a baseline serum magnesium level ≥0.785 mmol/L as predictive of disease control, with a sensitivity of 89.4% and specificity of 87.5% (AUC 0.869). Patients with baseline Mg 2+ ≥0.785mmol/L demonstrated significantly longer median PFS compared to those with baseline Mg 2+