Designing effective financial pathways for ocean economy: a tripartite evolutionary game perspective

The development of the ocean economy plays a vital role in national strategic planning, yet it faces persistent financing challenges due to high risks, long investment cycles, and significant information asymmetries. This study constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model involving government, banks, and marine enterprises to explore effective financial support strategies for the ocean economy. Through replicator dynamic equations, simulation analysis, and sensitivity testing, the study examines how different policy incentives, industry characteristics, and stakeholder behaviors shape stable cooperation outcomes. The findings reveal that the optimal strategy is characterized by government intervention, enterprise investment, and bank exclusive marine financial products establishment, which depends on the alignment of risk compensation, financial incentives, and expected returns. A comparative analysis across three marine sectors—shipping, desalination, and marine equipment—demonstrates that financial support pathways must be tailored to industry-specific risk-return profiles. Policy recommendations include phased subsidies, differentiated incentive mechanisms, and adaptive financial product designs are given. This study provides theoretical support and implementation pathways for marine finance to deliver targeted support for the development of the marine economy.