Risk assessment of China–Russia Arctic energy cooperation based on Northern Sea Route utilization with an integrated MCDM model

With Arctic shipping routes opening, energy cooperation along these routes has become more active. China–Russia Arctic energy cooperation relies on the Northern Sea Route and polar marine operations. This cooperation faces compound risks driven by fragile marine ecosystems, harsh shipping conditions, and external uncertainties. To assess these risks, this study constructs a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework. The framework applies a CRITIC–entropy combined weighting method and integrates TOPSIS with an improved matter-element extension model. It provides both relative ranking and absolute classification of risk levels from 2018 to 2024. Risk contribution analysis is derived from TOPSIS decomposition. Scenario analysis describes uncertainty in marine environmental risks. The results show a three-stage pattern of risk evolution. From 2018 to 2021, risk remained at a medium-to-low stable level. In 2022, it rose sharply to Grade IV due to external shocks. From 2023 to 2024, it was a period of adjustment with multiple risks coexisting. This framework effectively captured the risk grades, rankings, and key drivers. It demonstrated strong robustness in the highly uncertain Arctic marine conditions. Policy should focus on enhancing polar operation technologies and the governance level of the investment environment. The study also hopes to strengthen the monitoring of risks related to Arctic shipping routes and marine ecosystems and the construction of emergency buffering mechanisms.