Identification of clinical predictors for functional recovery in patients with thoracolumbar fractures and incomplete spinal cord injury: an internally validated prediction model

Background Accurate prediction of functional recovery after thoracolumbar fracture with incomplete spinal cord injury (SCI) remains challenging. We aimed to identify independent predictors and develop a validated model for 12-month functional outcome. Methods In this single-center, retrospective cohort study (January 2018–December 2024), consecutive adults (≥18 years) with acute T11-L2 fractures and admission American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale (AIS) grade B, C, or D were enrolled. Functional recovery was defined as ≥1 AIS grade improvement plus ≥10-point Spinal Cord Independence Measure version III (SCIM-III) gain at 12 months. Candidate predictors ( n = 23) were selected a priori based on literature review and expert consensus. Missing data (