Climate change interventions at the “top of the world”: exploring risk–risk tradeoffs in Arctic coastal protection and forest carbon removal in Alaska

Alaska, the largest geographic state in the United States, experiences climate change and global warming two to three times that of the global average, leading to thawing permafrost, wildfires, and more severe storms. However, managing climate interventions in Alaska is riddled with challenges that threaten to create risk–risk tradeoffs. Based on semi-structured expert interviews ( N = 24), site visits in Alaska ( N = 3), and photography, including within one Indigenous group in the Arctic Circle, this study investigates the concept of risk–risk tradeoffs involved in Arctic climate interventions. It does so by examining two case studies: one of a $360 million plan for coastal protection and adaptation via seawalls, revetments, and beach nourishment in Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), as well as another case study of plans to expand the management of Alaskan boreal forests across the Tanana Valley and Matanuska-Susitna Valley to provide about $50 million worth of carbon removal services. The study explores how climate protection interventions have a target risk to be mitigated—such as flooding, storm surge, coastal erosion, accelerated global warming—but also involve adverse or countervailing risks such as permafrost thawing, sea level rise, inward human migration, wildfires, invasive species, and insect outbreaks. The study then discusses implications of these results in terms of differential risk dynamics, intersecting risks, and uncertainty. In doing so, it reveals a recurring and capricious challenge in terms of climate policy, climate protection, and risk management. It highlights creative adaptation of local policy instruments to combat climate change, and illustrates the value of engagement with non-governmental entities to fortify policy measures.