Political market entropy in Rome. An analysis of different electoral cycles (1993–2023)

This paper explores the dynamics of political market entropy in Rome between 1993 and 2023, analyzing 29 electoral cycles across local, regional, national, and European levels. Using Shannon’s entropy as an indicator of systemic uncertainty, the study examines how the fragmentation of the political offer interacts with voter participation and abstention. Building on previous systemic approaches and the behavioral insights in the scientific literature of social sciences, entropy is treated both as a dependent and an independent variable—a product of political fragmentation and a driver of voter disaffection. The findings reveal a gradual increase in entropy over three decades, punctuated by cyclical oscillations consistent with self-regulating dynamics in the political system. The results suggest that the Roman political market behaves as a complex adaptive system, oscillating between periods of dispersion and re-consolidation, pluralism and stability. This entropic interpretation offers a novel framework for understanding how contemporary democracies process uncertainty and adapt to changing patterns of competition and participation.