From retention to turnover: the paradoxical role of career optimism and the moderating effect of psychological safety

This study aims to explore the dual effects of career optimism on job-seeking behavior and organizational commitment, clarify the underlying mechanisms, and provide organizational management strategies to maximize benefits and mitigate drawbacks. However, the relationship between career optimism, organizational commitment and job-seeking behavior lacks consistency. Using cluster sampling, 370 employees were surveyed at two time points. Bootstrap and moderated mediation analyses were applied to test hypotheses, based on Social Cognitive Career Theory. An analysis of data from 370 employees over two periods found that: (1) Career optimism significantly and positively affected job-seeking behavior and organizational commitment; (2) Subjective career success mediated the relationship between career optimism and job-seeking behavior/organizational commitment; (3) Psychological safety moderated the relationship between subjective career success and job-seeking behavior, that is, the lower the level of psychological safety, the higher are the positive relationship of subjective career success and job-seeking behavior. Theoretically, it reveals the "dual-path" effect of career optimism, and supplements the explanatory gap of Social Cognitive Career Theory in situational moderating mechanisms. Practically, it offers strategies for organizations to balance optimism's benefits and risks, aiding talent retention.