Global trend analysis and risk evolution of asbestos-related ovarian cancer: a population-based study and future prediction (1990–2021)

Existing evidence demonstrates that asbestos exposure is an environmental risk factor for ovarian cancer (OC). Using comprehensive data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study, this research quantified the epidemiological burden of asbestos-related ovarian cancer. In 2021, asbestos exposure accounted for 5,587 OC deaths-a 51.2% increase from 1990. However, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 0.11 (95% UI: 0.05-0.17) to 0.07 (95% UI: 0.03-0.11) per 100,000 people between 1990 and 2021. Similarly, the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate declined from 1.93 (95% UI: 0.92-3.03) to 1.15 (95% UI: 0.56-1.85) per 100,000 people, reflecting a 40.4% reduction in total DALYs. Projections based on the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model indicate declining incidence and mortality rates over the next 25 years. These findings suggest asbestos' role as an independent OC risk factor is diminishing, warranting further investigation into its synergistic effects and co-pathogenesis with other etiological factors.