Exploring the multidimensional factors associated with the incidence of bacillary dysentery in China based on a panel data model

Objective Bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a public health concern in China, with its incidence influenced by multidimensional and interconnected factors. This study aimed to quantify the correlations between meteorological conditions, socioeconomic status, health resources, forest coverage, and BD incidence—an integrated analysis lacking in previous research. The results provide a comprehensive evidence base for formulating targeted BD prevention strategies. Methods Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2014 ~ 2018), including BD incidence rates and 12 indicators of proxy variables at the ecological level, fixed-effects and random-effects models with Driscoll–Kraay robust standard errors were applied. Results The results of the random-effects model incorporating multidimensional factors showed that a 1% increase in the number of beds per 1,000 people in healthcare facilities, GDP per capita, and forest coverage was significantly associated with decreases in BD incidence rates of 2, 0.8, and 0.6%, respectively, (all p < 0.05). These findings indicate ecological associations with the incidence of BD across different provinces in China. Conclusion Improvements in regional investment in healthcare resources, economic development, and forest coverage were inversely associated with BD incidence, suggesting potential protective effects at the population level.