Persistent excess mortality in post-pandemic Japan: current evidence, methodological limitations, and future directions

More than six years after the emergence of COVID-19, Japan continues to experience persistently elevated excess mortality despite entering a post-pandemic phase. Excess mortality, defined as the difference between observed and expected deaths, reflects both direct and indirect effects of the pandemic, including healthcare disruption, delayed care, and broader social changes. In Japan, mortality decreased slightly in 2020 but increased markedly from 2022 onward, with annual excess deaths approaching 100,000, despite widespread vaccination and the predominance of the less virulent Omicron variant. Multiple factors may underlie this sustained increase, including population aging, changes in healthcare access, delayed diagnosis and treatment, regional disparities, and psychosocial stress. Some ecological and observational studies have reported a statistical association between repeated COVID-19 booster vaccination and excess mortality in Japan; however, these findings do not establish causality, and a causal relationship cannot currently be concluded. Against this background, this narrative review examines persistent excess mortality in Japan, uses the literature on repeated booster vaccination as an illustrative example to highlight methodological limitations, and discusses the need for nationwide, linked individual-level data infrastructure and appropriate analytical frameworks for more robust future evaluations.