Compound shocks to agri-food supply chain transport and trade in the United States

Agri-food supply chains are important for national food security and economic stability but remain highly vulnerable to multiple natural and socioeconomic shocks. This study examines how such compound shocks affected transport and trade of the US agri-food supply chain from 2018 to 2022. Using the Freight Analysis Framework database, we quantify temporal and spatial changes in domestic, import, and export agri-food flows, and apply a weighted node-degree network analysis to assess regional resilience during this time period, which included the US-China trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, and severe flood and drought events. Our results identify the locations and commodities that were most impacted and resilient to shocks. For example, Midwestern agricultural hubs were severely affected during floods, while urban logistics centers exhibited prolonged recovery following the pandemic. Our analysis highlights regional differences in network adaptability and identifies key commodities driving these dynamics. These findings provide insights for strengthening transport infrastructure, diversifying supply routes, and improving systemic resilience of national food supply chains under future shocks.