Does rural collective construction land marketization increase farmers’ income? A multi-period DID analysis of China’s county-level data

This study examines the impact of rural collective construction land marketization (RCCLM) on rural residents’ income using county-level panel data from China (2010–2022) and a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) framework. Exploiting the staggered rollout of pilot reforms across 33 counties as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that RCCLM significantly increases rural residents’ income. This positive effect exhibits marked regional heterogeneity: statistically significant in eastern and central regions but not in the less-developed western region. The 2016 expanded pilot policy demonstrates stronger income-promoting effects than the 2015 initial policy, attributable to economies of scale from broader implementation. Mechanism analysis reveals two primary transmission channels: (1) RCCLM improves total factor productivity (TFP) through technological adoption and management optimization, enhancing operating income; and (2) the policy promotes industrial structure upgrading, with tertiary sector development creating employment opportunities and increasing wage income. Robustness checks using Callaway-Sant’Anna estimators, PSM-DID, and placebo tests confirm our findings. The parallel trend test indicates implementation lag effects typical of institutional reforms. This study contributes to understanding how land market liberalization can promote rural development, offering policy implications for narrowing urban–rural income disparities.