Balancing social development and ecological conservation: a case study from Shaanxi, China on future ecosystem service optimization

Clarifying the influence of land-use transitions on ecosystem services (ESs) is essential for regional sustainability. Focusing on Shaanxi Province, this study develops an integrated framework that couples the LightGBM-PLUS model for land-use simulation with the InVEST model for quantitative ESs assessment, further incorporating ecological security patterns (ESP) and grey multi-objective optimization (GMOP) to optimize ES outcomes. The coupled LightGBM-PLUS model demonstrates high reliability (93% Overall Accuracy; Kappa 0.90). Scenario analysis reveals distinct trade-offs: the Natural Development (ND) and Economic Priority (EP) scenarios lead to limited ESs improvements and substantial ESs losses, respectively, while the Ecological Land Protection (ELP) scenario enhances ecological functions but constrains economic growth. The Coordinated Development scenario—enabled by the integration of ESP and GMOP—simultaneously improves water yield, soil conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality, achieving a balanced ecological–economic pathway. Natural factors such as topography and climate are the dominant drivers of ESs variations, supplemented by socioeconomic influences. Overall, this study provides a systematic approach to linking land-use transitions with ESs optimization, offering practical guidance for sustainable regional planning.