Modeling the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Egyptian food security

Countries and international organizations seek to enhance food security amid numerous global threats. Recently, one of the most notable conflicts affecting global food security has been the Russia–Ukraine war. This study aims to assess the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on Egypt’s food security by comparing food product prices before and during the conflict, estimating a model to measure the war’s effect on food security levels during 2000–2022, and forecasting the future state of food security. Based on the estimated model, both the country’s food production capacity and real per capita income have a significant positive impact on the level of food security, while food prices exert a significant negative effect. Despite the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Egypt’s food security index is expected to remain at a moderate level.