Forecasting eco-efficiency performance of China’s agricultural industry

Under the dual challenge of global climate change and food security, agriculture is required to not only sustain continuous growth in socio-economic output but also shoulder the significant responsibility of reducing carbon emissions and protecting the ecological environment. Traditional unidimensional efficiency evaluations are inadequate to balance the synergistic relationship between growth, emission reduction, and ecological protection. Therefore, this study employs a two-stage DEA model to decompose agricultural ecological efficiency into two sub-stages: Economic Transformation Efficiency (E 1 ) and Ecological Restoration Efficiency (E 2 ), aiming to reveal the internal linkage mechanism between economic growth and ecological protection in agricultural development. Given that static analysis is insufficient to support inferences regarding long-term development trajectories, this study introduces the ARIMA model to forecast the future evolution of efficiency, with the aim of clarifying the developmental path of agriculture in China. The findings reveal that: (1) The two stages of agricultural eco-efficiency exhibit distinct characteristics. Economic transformation efficiency (E 1 ) drives fluctuations in overall efficiency, while ecological restoration efficiency (E 2 ) suffers from long-term coordination deficiencies. There remains substantial room for improvement in the coordinated development between “economic transformation” and “ecological restoration,” necessitating optimization of coordination mechanisms and enhanced adaptability of E 2 . (2) The growth of agricultural eco-efficiency in China displays significant regional heterogeneity. Kernel density estimation curves indicate a general upward trend, with regional disparities narrowing initially and then widening. The observed long-tail phenomenon suggests marked inter-regional differences, further exacerbating the polarization of agricultural development. (3) The ARIMA model forecasts a downward trend in China’s agricultural eco-efficiency. This result suggests that agricultural production in China still faces considerable challenges, and the pressure on sustainable development remains substantial.