Do elderly farmers have different expectations regarding land rent compared to other farmers? An analysis of farmers’ expected land rents in Heilongjiang Province, China

A core issue in agricultural land transfers is land pricing. This paper primarily analyzes differences in expected land lease price among various types of farmers. The results show that technical efficiency, soil fertility, the number of household agricultural laborers, ownership of fixed assets, and regional variables significantly influence farmers’ expected land lease price. Furthermore, whether regarding expected land lease-in price or expected land lease-out price, elderly farmers’ expected land lease price levels are significantly lower than those of other farmers. Whether the cross-coefficient between elderly farmers and technical efficiency is significant and positive indicates that older farmers with higher technical efficiency are more willing to increase their expected rent to gain a competitive advantage in agricultural production. Based on these findings, although elderly farmers set lower expected land lease price than other farmers, they are willing to transfer land at higher prices as their efficiency improves. Under competitive market conditions, cultivated land transfers tend to flow toward younger farmers offering higher bids and elderly farmers with superior technical skills. Future research should further explore the impacts stemming from differences in farm scale, operational methods, and management models between elderly and younger farmers.