New energy development, land system transformation, and grain productivity quality: evidence from China

Amid global climate change and China’s dual‑carbon goals, the rapid development of new energy is reshaping the resource and technological foundations of grain production. Regional differences in land‑institution transformation and governance capacity lead to varied effects of energy transition on agriculture.Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2013–2022), this study constructs a multidimensional Grain Productivity Quality Index (GPQI) via the entropy‑weight method, covering technological efficiency, digitalization, green‑input adoption, production integration, and inclusiveness. We employ a two‑way fixed‑effects model and a multi‑period difference‑in‑differences design for causal inference, with robustness checks.Results show that a 1% increase in new energy development raises GPQI by 0.41% ( p < 0.01). Solar and nuclear energy have significant positive effects, while hydropower and wind power show insignificant impacts. In addition,the impact of new energy development on food neo-productivity exhibits heterogeneity with respect to spatial, temporal, policy, economic, and financial development levels.These differences in land institutions and governance capacity can be viewed as a critical contextual backdrop and explanatory lens for understanding such heterogeneity.This study reveals a synergistic channel between energy and agriculture, indicating that energy transition can support sustainable and resilient grain production. The heterogeneous patterns provide empirical support for regionally differentiated policies coordinating energy and food systems.