Gendered livelihood vulnerability to climate change among small-scale fishing communities in Lake Victoria, Kenya

Small-scale fisheries are central to inland aquatic food systems in sub-Saharan Africa but are increasingly threatened by climate variability and environmental change. Despite growing recognition of gendered vulnerabilities, empirical evidence from inland fisheries remains limited. This study assessed gender-differentiated livelihood vulnerability among fishing communities in Homa Bay and Migori counties along Lake Victoria, Kenya. The study applied the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and the LVI–Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC) frameworks using a mixed-methods approach. Data were collected through household surveys ( n = 477), key informant interviews ( n = 42), and focus group discussions ( n = 6). Bootstrap confidence intervals and non-parametric statistical tests were used to assess spatial and gender differences in vulnerability. Results revealed significant spatial variation in vulnerability, with Migori County exhibiting higher vulnerability (LVI = 0.609; 95% CI: 0.580–0.640) than Homa Bay County (LVI = 0.520; 95% CI: 0.490–0.550). Similarly, LVI-IPCC results indicated positive vulnerability in both counties, with Migori (0.136) more vulnerable than Homa Bay (0.101), driven by high exposure and sensitivity alongside limited adaptive capacity. Gender-disaggregated findings showed that men recorded higher scores across exposure- and sensitivity-related dimensions, including food security, health, and natural disasters, reflecting their direct engagement in capture fisheries. In contrast, women exhibited lower index scores in these dimensions but experienced structurally embedded vulnerabilities associated with limited access to assets, decision-making power, and livelihood opportunities. Spatial and gender differences were statistically significant ( p < 0.05). The findings demonstrate that vulnerability among fishing communities is shaped by both exposure-driven and structurally mediated factors. While men experience greater direct climate exposure through fisheries activities, women face persistent socio-economic constraints that limit adaptive capacity. These results underscore the need for gender-responsive and context-specific climate adaptation strategies to strengthen resilience in small-scale fisheries and inland aquatic food systems.