Rural population aging, agricultural technology progress, and high-quality development of agriculture: evidence from China

Population aging is one of the significant social issues currently faced by China and the world at large. The total number of elderly individuals and the pace of aging in rural China are substantially higher than in urban areas, exerting a profound impact on the high-quality development of agriculture. Utilizing panel data from China's 31 provinces from 2011 to 2022, this paper measures the level of high-quality development of agriculture and agricultural technology progress. It further investigates the impact of rural population aging on the high-quality development of agriculture and the transmission mechanism between the two. The findings are as follows: First, the overall level of high-quality development of agriculture in China exhibits a rapid upward trend during the study period, with the central and western regions showing a significant catching-up momentum. Second, rural population aging has a negative inhibitory effect on the level of high-quality development of agriculture, which remains significant after multiple robustness tests. Third, the results of heterogeneity analysis indicate that the inhibitory effect of rural population aging on the level of high-quality development of agriculture is strongest in the central region, relatively weaker in the eastern and western regions; the negative impact in major grain-producing areas is greater than in non-major grain-producing areas. Fourth, the mechanism analysis suggests that agricultural technology progress can mitigate the negative impact of rural population aging on the level of high-quality development of agriculture.