The impact of agricultural socialized services on agricultural and rural modernization: an empirical analysis based on spatial spillover and threshold effects

Introduction This paper explores the influence mechanism and effect of agricultural socialized services on agricultural and rural modernization. Methods On the basis of‌ the data of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2011 to 2023, the two-way fixed-effect model, threshold model and spatial Durbin model were used to conduct an empirical study. Results The results show that agricultural socialized services significantly promote agricultural and rural modernization, and the results are stable. Regional heterogeneity analysis shows that the driving effect is most significant in the western region and the northeast region, while it is weaker in the eastern and central regions. The heterogeneity analysis of grain producing areas shows that socialized services in the main grain producing areas and the balanced areas significantly promote agricultural and rural modernization, with the strongest effect in the main producing areas. The threshold model, using rural human capital as the threshold variable, reveals a nonlinear effect characterized by diminishing positive returns. When the average years of schooling of the rural labor force exceeds a threshold level, the marginal contribution of agricultural socialized services declines. The spatial spillover effect shows that agricultural socialized services not only promote local development but also have a positive impact on surrounding areas. Discussion This study improves the understanding of the mechanism, effect and spatial differences of agricultural socialized services to empower agricultural and rural modernization, provides a reference for inter-regional agricultural technology cooperation, and offers targeted recommendations for improving agricultural socialized services in order to further promote agricultural and rural modernization.