The impact of green finance development on agricultural ecological efficiency and spatial spillover effects: evidence from China

Green finance (GF) reform serves not only as an essential measure for advancing China’s ecological civilization but also as a critical instrument for promoting the green transformation of agriculture. Using provincial panel data from 2005 to 2023, this study treats the establishment of GF reform and innovation pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment and constructs a staggered DID model, an SDM-DID model, as well as mediation and moderation models to systematically examine the multifaceted impacts of GF on agricultural ecological efficiency (AEE) and its underlying mechanisms. The results reveal the following: First, GF enhances AEE within local regions while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions and carbon intensity. It also generates positive spillover effects on neighboring regions, thereby facilitating coordinated green agricultural development between local and adjacent areas. Moreover, the positive effect of GF on AEE exhibits a steadily increasing long-term trend. Second, heterogeneity analyses indicate that the enabling effect of GF is more pronounced in eastern China and in major grain-producing regions. Third, the mechanism and moderation analyses suggest that GF improves AEE by promoting farmland transfer and stimulating agricultural technological innovation. Furthermore, higher levels of marketization and stronger government guidance amplify the positive influence of GF on AEE.