The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Iraq

Iraq is among the top ten countries most affected by climate change according to the World Bank (2023), contributing 2.5% of global emissions while accounting for only 0.5% of the global economy. Approximately 95% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions stem from its heavy reliance on fossil fuels. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Iraq during the period (2003-2023) using a descriptive-analytical approach based on time series data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results revealed a non-linear relationship between economic growth and pollution in Iraq, with the curve taking an "N" shape rather than the traditional inverted "U" shape. The study found that higher GDP per capita is associated with greater pollution due to excessive reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, energy consumption and trade openness were shown to have the most significant impact on increasing emissions in both the short and long term, a consequence of Iraq's near-total reliance on crude oil exports and the absence of sustainable alternatives. In light of these findings, the study recommends adopting a comprehensive national strategy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and achieve genuine economic diversification beyond the oil sector.