The Evolutionary Trends, Regional Differences, and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Enhancing agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) under ecological and environmental constraints is essential for advancing green agricultural development in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. Using panel data from 13 prefecture-level cities from 2001 to 2022, this study applies a super-efficiency EBM model incorporating undesirable outputs together with the Malmquist–Luenberger index to measure AGTFP. Global and local Moran’s I indices as well as the spatial Durbin model are then employed to examine the temporal evolution, spatial disparities, and spatial interaction effects of AGTFP during 2001–2022. The findings indicate that: (1) From 2001 to 2022, the AGTFP in the BTH region grew at an average annual rate of 7.7%. This trend reflects a growth pattern primarily driven by green technological progress in agriculture, while substantial disparities in AGTFP persist across different subregions. (2) the global Moran’s I values show frequent shifts between positive and negative spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that a stable and effective regional coordination mechanism for green agricultural development has yet to be formed; (3) the determinants of AGTFP exhibit pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and the fundamental drivers of the region’s green agricultural transition increasingly rely on endogenous growth generated by technological innovation and rural human capital; (4) policy recommendations include strengthening benefit-sharing and policy coordination mechanisms, promoting cross-regional cooperation in agricultural science and technology, and implementing differentiated industrial layouts to support green agricultural development in the BTH region. These results provide valuable insights for promoting coordinated and sustainable green agricultural development across regions.