Performance Prediction of Condensation Dehumidification System Utilizing Natural Cold Resources in Cold Climate Regions Using Physical-Based Model and Stacking Ensemble Learning Models

Maintaining optimal humidity in livestock buildings during winter is a major challenge in cold climate regions due to the conflict between moisture-removing ventilation and the need for heat preservation. To address this issue, a novel condensation dehumidification system is proposed that utilizes the natural low temperature of cold winters. An integrated energy consumption model, coupling moisture and thermal balances, was developed to evaluate room temperature drop, dehumidification rate (DR), and the internal circulation coefficient of performance (IC-COP). The model was calibrated and validated with experimental data comprising over 150 operational cycles under varied operation conditions, including initial temperature differences (ranging from −20 to −5 °C), air flow rates (0.6–1.5 m/s), refrigerant flow rates (3–7 L/min), and high-humidity conditions (>90% RH). Correlation analysis showed that higher indoor humidity improved both DR and IC-COP. Four machine learning models—Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Random Forest (RF), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)—were developed and compared with a stacking ensemble learning model. Results demonstrated that the stacking model achieved superior prediction accuracy, with the best R2 reaching 0.908, significantly outperforming individual models. This work provides an energy-saving dehumidification solution for enclosed livestock housing and a case study on the application of machine learning for energy performance prediction and optimization in agricultural environmental control.