A Study on the Nonlinear Impact of Agricultural Insurance on the Resilience of Agricultural Economy

With the deepening implementation of agricultural full-cost insurance and crop income insurance, agricultural insurance has gradually become a significant force in promoting agricultural and rural modernization and achieving the strategic goal of building a strong agricultural nation. Based on data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2023, a comprehensive evaluation index system for agricultural economic resilience was constructed, and the impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural economic resilience, along with its underlying mechanisms, was systematically analyzed. The findings reveal that: (1) There exists a nonlinear “U-shaped” relationship between agricultural insurance and agricultural economic resilience, a conclusion that remains robust after a series of tests; (2) Agricultural insurance can positively influence agricultural economic resilience by promoting agricultural technological progress; (3) When the level of industrial structure exceeds 7.108, agricultural insurance has a significant effect on agricultural economic resilience, and as the industrial structure level improves, the promoting effect of agricultural insurance becomes more pronounced; (4) The “U-shaped” impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural economic resilience is more prominent in the eastern, central, and northeastern regions, while it is not significant in the western region.