Land Consolidation and Smart Agriculture Synergy for Food Security: Pathways Toward Agricultural Carbon Neutrality in China

The combined implementation of land consolidation and smart agriculture is crucial for food security and agricultural carbon neutrality. Using 2010–2024 panel data from 279 Chinese prefecture-level cities, this study constructs an integrated assessment system and examines impact mechanisms and spatial effects using dual machine learning, mediation analysis, and dynamic spatial models. Results show that the interaction between land consolidation and smart agriculture significantly enhances food security at the 10% significance level and promotes agricultural carbon neutrality. Mechanism analysis indicates that agricultural industrial agglomeration positively contributes to both outcomes, while technological innovation significantly promotes carbon neutrality but temporarily suppresses food security. Spatial analysis reveals limited direct effects on local food security but positive indirect and total effects on neighboring regions, with carbon neutrality showing positive direct, indirect, and total effects. After controlling for city fixed effects and quadratic terms, the synergy remains significant, indicating robustness. The study suggests strengthening coordinated governance and innovation-driven regional development to jointly advance food security and agricultural carbon neutrality.