Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Evaluation of Groundwater and Salt in the Karamay Irrigation District

Inland depression irrigation districts in the arid regions of Xinjiang, owing to the absence of natural drainage conditions, exhibit unique groundwater-salt dynamics and face prominent risks of soil salinization, thus necessitating clarification of their water-salt transport mechanisms to ensure sustainable agricultural development. This study takes the Karamay Agricultural Comprehensive Development Zone as the research subject. The study examines the distribution characteristics of soil salinity, groundwater depth, and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) of groundwater across diverse soil textures, elucidates the correlative relationships between groundwater dynamics and soil salinity, and forecasts the evolutionary trajectory of groundwater levels within the irrigation district. The findings reveal that groundwater depth in silty soil regions (3.24–3.11 m) substantially exceeds that in silty clay regions (2.43–2.61 m), whereas TDS of groundwater demonstrates marginally elevated concentrations in silty clay areas (19.05–16.78 g L−1) compared to silty soil zones (18.18–16.29 g L−1). Soil salinity exhibits pronounced surface accumulation phenomena and considerable inter-annual seasonal variations: manifesting a “spring-peak, summer-trough” pattern in 2023, which inversely transitioned to a “summer-peak, spring-trough” configuration in 2024, with salinity hotspots predominantly concentrated in silty clay distribution zones. A significant sigmoid functional relationship emerges between soil salinity and groundwater depth (R2 = 0.73–0.77), establishing critical depth thresholds of 2.44 m for silty soil and 2.72 m for silty clay, beneath which the risk of secondary salinization escalates dramatically. The XGBoost model demonstrates robust predictive capability for groundwater levels (R2 = 0.8545, MAE = 0.4428, RMSE = 0.5174), with feature importance analysis identifying agricultural irrigation as the predominant influencing factor. Model projections indicate that mean groundwater depths across the irrigation district will decline to 2.91 m, 2.76 m, 2.62 m, and 2.36 m over the ensuing 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Within a decade, 73.33% of silty soil regions and 92.31% of silty clay regions will experience groundwater levels below critical thresholds, subjecting the irrigation district to severe secondary salinization threats. Consequently, comprehensive mitigation strategies encompassing precision irrigation management and enhanced drainage infrastructure are imperative.