Government Regulation and Safe Production in Agricultural Enterprises: Panel Tracking of Regulatory Perceptions and Cross-Sectional Analysis from China

With the rapid advancement of agricultural modernization, ensuring production safety has become a pressing concern, yet the mechanisms through which government regulation fosters safe production remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap using a two-stage survey design: first, panel-tracked survey data collected from 2021 to 2024 are used to document the evolution of regulatory perceptions among agricultural enterprises; second, a cross-sectional analytical design based on three survey waves conducted in 2024 is employed to examine the effect mechanisms using structural equation modeling method. Drawing on survey data from 485 Chinese agricultural enterprises in 2024, the findings show that four regulatory types—normative, punitive, incentive, and service—promote safe production both directly and indirectly through dual pathways: knowledge acquisition (cognitive–technical capacity building) and risk awareness (preventive attitudinal orientation). Mediation comparison analysis reveals that these two mechanisms exert equivalent effects across all regulatory pathways, indicating complementary rather than competing roles. Theoretically, the study advances regulatory pluralism and dual-mediation frameworks in organizational safety research; practically, it offers guidance for policymakers to design integrated regulatory portfolios and for managers to strengthen both knowledge systems and risk-aware cultures.