Do Green Finance Reform Pilot Zones Reduce Agricultural Carbon Emission Intensity in China? Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the Multi-Period Difference-in-Differences Method

Reducing agricultural emissions is vital for climate mitigation, yet evidence on green finance’s potential to facilitate agricultural decarbonization—particularly in China—remains scarce. Leveraging China’s Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Zones as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs a staggered difference-in-differences design and complementary Callaway-Sant’Anna estimates. Using a balanced panel of 282 prefecture-level and above cities spanning 2012–2022—a window covering five pre-policy years before the initial 2017 pilot rollout and sufficient post-policy years to capture dynamic effects for the 2017, 2019, and 2022 cohorts—this study assesses the policy impact on agricultural carbon emission intensity. The findings reveal that the pilot policy reduces emission intensity by approximately 9.2% on average. This result is robust across event-study analyses, placebo tests, PSM-DID, policy interference checks, and alternative outcome specifications. Channel-consistent evidence suggests that the effect operates through three mechanisms: greener credit allocation, stronger green technological innovation, and lower-carbon adjustment of the agricultural production structure. The effect is larger in eastern China, major grain-producing regions, and cities with higher levels of financial development, and exhibits a strengthening trend over time. By analyzing China’s city-based pilot approach, this study demonstrates how financial policy can support agricultural decarbonization in settings characterized by dispersed emitters, imperfect environmental monitoring, and strong food-security constraints. The findings extend beyond China to inform other developing economies seeking non-price-based pathways to greener agriculture.