Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning for Sugarcane Leaf Disease Detection Using Monte Carlo Dropout and MobileNetV3

Sugarcane diseases cause estimated global annual losses of over $5 billion. While deep learning shows promise for disease detection, current approaches lack transparency and confidence estimates, limiting their adoption by agricultural stakeholders. We developed an uncertainty-aware detection system integrating Monte Carlo (MC) dropout with MobileNetV3, trained on 2521 images across five categories: Healthy, Mosaic, Red Rot, Rust, and Yellow. The proposed framework achieved 97.23% accuracy with a lightweight architecture comprising 5.4 M parameters. It enabled a 2.3 s inference while generating well-calibrated uncertainty estimates that were 4.0 times higher for misclassifications. High-confidence predictions (>70%) achieved 98.2% accuracy. Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping provided interpretable disease localization, and the system was deployed on Hugging Face Spaces for global accessibility. The model demonstrated high recall for the Healthy and Red Rot classes. The model achieved comparatively higher recall for the Healthy and Red Rot classes. The inclusion of uncertainty quantification provides additional information that may support more informed decision-making in precision agriculture applications involving farmers and agronomists.