Ridge Regression Modeling of Evaporation Reduction Strategies for Small-Scale Water Storage in Semi-Arid Regions

In semi-arid areas, water loss from small agricultural water storage facilities is significant, owing to evaporation. A longitudinal study was conducted between 2019 and 2022 at the Agricultural Research Station, Ananthapuramu, located in the semi-arid climate of Peninsular India, which compared 12 distinct treatments designed to reduce evaporation. These treatments included bamboo sheets, agricultural residues, Azolla (Azolla pinnata), monomolecular alcohol films, and oil-based films, along with an untreated control. Evaporation rates and meteorological data were measured using the depth loss method and automatic weather station. Results indicated substantial treatment effects, such as bamboo sheets decreasing evaporation by 88%, reducing daily loss from 5.2 mm to 0.8 mm, while Azolla achieved a 62% reduction (2.8 mm). Organic residues decreased evaporation by 37–47%, and chemical monolayers and oils by 21–42%. Ridge regression models demonstrated strong performance (R2 = 0.789–0.808), with bamboo sheets exhibiting the lowest Root Mean Square Error (0.127 mm day−1). Economic analysis revealed annual water savings of 4700–4800 m3 ha−1 for bamboo sheets and 2300–2500 m3 ha−1 for less effective covers. Assuming a baseline water value of 0.20 US$ m−3, annual net benefits ranged from 250 to 900 US$ ha−1, with Net Present Values spanning from 7000 to 160,000 US$ ha−1 across various scenarios. Overall, bamboo sheets and Azolla were identified as the most effective and economically viable options for mitigating evaporation in semi-arid smallholder water systems. Maximum air temperature (Tmax) was a key meteorological variable used to model daily evaporation, together with wind speed, followed by relative humidity and sunshine duration.