A Delphi-Based Exploratory Estimation of the Economic Impact of Coccidiosis in Turkish Broiler Production

This study provides a model-based exploratory assessment of the economic impact attributable to coccidiosis within the Turkish broiler sector. Primary data were obtained from 117 commercial enterprises (total capacity: 1,666,000 broilers) across the Mediterranean, Marmara, and Central Anatolia regions during the 2024 production cycle. Epidemiological analysis estimated a disease prevalence of 13% within the sampled population. The economic impact was evaluated using a stochastic modeling framework informed by Monte Carlo simulation and integrated with the Delphi method. Total national financial losses in Türkiye were estimated to reach a mean of $15.1 million in the most likely scenario (with a probabilistic range extending from $3.3 million under optimistic assumptions to $46.3 million under pessimistic conditions). The model-estimated average financial burden per animal was approximately $0.41 (representing an estimated $2.06 per clinically infected bird). Notably, projections suggest that roughly 62% of this economic impact could be attributed to subclinical factors, characterized by a modeled 5% (150 g) reduction in live weight and an estimated 8% (274 g) increase in feed consumption due to impaired Feed Conversion Ratio. The mortality rate within the modeled scenarios was calibrated at 8%. These findings suggest a substantial potential economic burden on the poultry industry. The analysis indicates that the majority of financial losses may stem from subclinical performance declines-specifically, impaired Feed Conversion Ratio and reduced growth-rather than acute mortality. These projections emphasize the urgent need for enhanced preventative strategies and subclinical monitoring to mitigate the estimated economic impact in Türkiye.