Natural and Anthropogenic Risk Factors of Discontinuous Ground Deformations: A Conceptual Framework for Hazard Analysis: Part I—Predisposing Conditions

Discontinuous ground deformations represent one of the most critical geohazards affecting both natural and anthropogenically transformed environments. These processes pose a serious threat to infrastructure stability and land-use planning, as they can lead to severe structural damage and long-term ground instability. Effective geotechnical hazard management requires an integrated understanding of geological structures, deformation mechanisms, and the legacy of historical subsurface transformations influencing current and future ground behaviour. This paper—the first part of a two-part series—introduces an extended three-channel conceptual–probabilistic model and outlines its causal structure, integrating predisposing, triggering, and causative factors. The present study focuses exclusively on the theoretical foundations of the model and on the hierarchical classification of thirteen key predisposing factors defining the long-term susceptibility of the rock mass (S(A)). These include both structural and physicochemical controls such as karst voids, weak interfaces, hydro-mechanical activity, and near-surface weathering. The proposed approach provides a physically consistent conceptual basis for representing the interactions among the three causal domains. The second part of the series will address triggering and causative domains and will discuss methodological and implementation aspects of the model within the completed causal structure.