Scenario-Based Analysis of the Future Technological Trends in the Automotive Sector in Southeast Lower-Saxony

The automotive industry faces radical technological change, driven by the adoption of electrification, automation, and digitalization. As a leading industrial hub with key OEMs and suppliers, such as Volkswagen, Southeast Lower Saxony is disproportionately impacted by this structural transformation. As a consequence of these trends, the region’s automotive base faces economic uncertainties, local regulatory lag, and technological disruptions. In this study a scenario planning methodology is conducted, to identify three potential mobility futures for 2035: a Best-Case scenario, where innovation and favorable policies enable a stable growth environment for the local automotive industry; a Trend scenario, marked by incremental yet uneven progress, while maintaining the current status quo; and a Worst-Case scenario, defined by economic stagnation and regulatory impediments, leading to a slow degradation of the regional automotive industry. The scenarios are then evaluated based upon their impact and probability of occurrence, while individual impact factors were also prepared and categorized to support future decision-making on a topical basis. This study offers an overview of potential scenarios for the Southeast Lower Saxon automotive industry, supporting the strategic decision-making.