Long-Term Evolution of the Ozone Layer Under CMIP7 Scenarios

Recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer following the ban on ozone-depleting substances represents one of the most successful examples of international environmental policy. However, the long-term fate of ozone under continuing climate change remains uncertain. We present the first multi-century projections of ozone evolution to 2200 using emission-driven CMIP7 scenarios in the SOCOL-MPIOM chemistry-climate model. Our results show that despite the elimination of halogenated compounds, total column ozone exhibits non-monotonic evolution, with an initial increase of 8–12% by 2080–2100, followed by a decline to 2200, remaining 4.5–7% above the 2020 baseline. Stratospheric ozone at 50 hPa shows a monotonic decline of 2–11% by 2200 across all scenarios, with no recovery despite ongoing Montreal Protocol implementation. Critically, even in the high-overshoot scenario where CO2 concentrations decline from 830 to 350 ppm between 2100 and 2200, stratospheric ozone continues to decrease. Intensification of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in warmer climates reduces ozone residence time in the tropical stratosphere, decreasing photochemical production efficiency. This dynamic effect outweighs the reduction in ozone-depleting substances, leading to persistent stratospheric ozone depletion despite total column ozone enhancements in polar regions. Spatial analysis reveals pronounced regional differentiation: Antarctic regions show sustained total column enhancement of +18–26% by 2190–2200, while tropical regions decline to levels below baseline (−4 to −5%). Our results reveal fundamental asymmetry between climate forcing and ozone response, with characteristic adjustment timescales of 100–200 years, and have critical implications for long-term atmospheric protection policy.